Calgary Monthly Meeting - February High Reward vs. Risk Investing Using Long-Term Cycles

President of Vantage Point Trading

Subject: High Reward vs. Risk Investing Using Long-Term Cycles

• 2 to 4 year time horizon on trades, and about 10 to 15 trades per year (more in market-wide crash years).
• Expected gains on individual trades between 100% (min) and 600%+, or about 150% to 200% for overall portfolio over the time horizon, which targets about 50% per year on deployed capital.
• Position size is used to manage risk and utilize capital effectively.
• Strategy is based on long-term cycles in the individual stocks (may relate to a larger sector or commodity as well), combined with a few fundamental ratios to help find and validate investing opportunities.
• Dividend stocks are preferred, especially if the stock only has about 100% to 150% upside.
• After entry, a stock may move offside by up to 25% (drawdown) before reversing to upside.  So: -25%  vs. +100% to +600%.
• Since we know the strategy picks up trades a bit early (may drop another 20% or so) we can use this for improving our own entry price.
• Strategy is “value-based” or “buy (very very) low” in nature and focused on stocks with at least decent volume and least a moderate market cap.

 Location: CNIB CENTRE